Risk Management on Megaprojects: Lessons from the Leviathan Project

Most major projects manage risk in Excel. Matt Mitchell spent a decade managing it differently - including as risk lead on a $3.9 billion offshore gas platform in the Mediterranean.

In this episode, Orion sits down with Matt Mitchell — a certified risk management professional with over a decade of experience across energy and industrial megaprojects — to go deep on one of the most underinvested disciplines in capital project delivery: risk management. Drawing on his time as risk lead for the Leviathan Project, a $3.9 billion offshore gas platform off the coast of Israel, Matt explains how risk management actually works at scale — from structuring workshops to running Monte Carlo simulations to navigating the political dynamics that keep real risks hidden. Whether you're a risk professional, a project manager, or an executive who's wondered what risk management is actually supposed to deliver, this is the most practical conversation on the subject we've had on the show.

Matt Mitchell is a certified risk management professional with over a decade of experience in risk and project controls across energy and industrial sectors. He served as risk lead at Noble Energy on the Leviathan Project — a $3.9 billion offshore gas platform in the Mediterranean — managing risk from FID through execution. He is currently building Electrical Grid Monitoring, a venture focused on innovative power line sensors, and is a member of Mints International. 🔗

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What You'll Learn

1. Split risk registers aren't a workaround — they're best practice On Leviathan, Matt maintained separate registers for different project levels and stakeholder groups. A single monolithic register collapses under the weight of a megaproject. Splitting by owner, contractor, and discipline keeps risk ownership clear and review meetings productive.

2. Risk workshops only work if contractors feel safe to speak The most dangerous risks on a megaproject live inside your contractors' heads — and they won't share them in a room full of owners unless you create the right conditions. Matt's approach: structured workshops with pre-work, clear ground rules, and a facilitator who knows when to push and when to hold back.

3. Monte Carlo isn't just for statisticians P50 means you have a 50% chance of finishing on time or on budget. P75 means 75%. Matt explains how to have that conversation with an executive who's never seen a probability distribution — and why choosing the wrong confidence level can sink your contingency strategy before the project starts.

4. Risk culture is built one conversation at a time

"One is greater than zero" — Matt's philosophy for getting risk identification started when a team is stuck. The risk champions program he describes is a practical model for distributing risk ownership across a large, multi-contractor project without creating bureaucracy.

Episode Timestamps

00:00 — Introduction
03:00 — Matt's background and path to megaproject risk management
07:00 — The Leviathan Project: $3.9B offshore gas platform overview
10:00 — Risk fundamentals: definitions, COSO framework, and black swans 18:00 — Designing and running effective risk workshops
22:00 — The valve example: one conversation that revealed a systemic risk
27:00 — Getting contractors to surface the risks they're hiding
30:00 — Monte Carlo simulation explained in plain language
34:00 — P50 vs. P75: choosing your confidence level and defending it
39:00 — Ancient artifacts on the seafloor: when risk becomes archaeology
40:00 — Risk champions program and building a risk culture across contractors

Resources Mentioned:

• ISO 31000 — International risk management framework
• COSO ERM — Enterprise Risk Management framework
• PMI (Project Management Institute) — project risk guidance
• PERT — Program Evaluation Review Technique (for smaller projects)
• Monte Carlo simulation — quantitative risk analysis methodology
• Noble Energy / Leviathan Project
• Electrical Grid Monitoring — Matt's current venture
• Mints International

If this episode gave you new frameworks for managing risk on complex projects, subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. And if you're building a risk culture in your organization, we'd love to hear what's working — drop a comment below or connect with Matt directly.