Major Project PodcastProjects over $1B
Full Transcript · Episode 017

The Hidden Reason Billion-Dollar Projects Overrun Even With Stage Gate

Iwona Wilson · Wilson Biz Consulting Jun 15, 2026 1h 50m 10 chapters · ~16,600 words
Transcript note Lightly edited machine transcript: speaker labels and names may be imperfect. The audio is the record. Listen to the episode ↗
Chapter 01 · 0:00 – 3:30

The Quality Route In

[00:00:00]
Orion Matthews

Welcome to Major Project Podcast. I'm your host, Orion Matthews. In this pod, we are learning from people that work on projects that are over a billion dollars, trying to tease out lessons and learnings from these big endeavors.

And today my guest is Iwona Wilson. She's got 20 years working across oil and gas, mining, capital projects in Australia, the UK, the United States, and she's a recent new author of Where Projects Are Lost Or Won: Practical Guide to Early Decision Framing and Governance. So really excited. I got a copy of this book, uh, when Iwona and I met at AACE, uh, down in Houston.

So W- Iwona, welcome to the podcast.

Iwona Wilson

Well, thank you so much, Orion. What a pleasure to be here, so thank you for inviting me.

Orion Matthews

Um, before we get started, I know we're gonna talk a lot about stage gates today, and really kind of dive into some of the, uh, you know, knowledge that you have about projects. But [00:01:00] maybe to kick this off you could just sort of tell us a little bit about how you got into the project space, and a little about yourself.

Iwona Wilson

Okay. Well, beautiful. Well, thank you so much, um, uh, Orion. So I got into the oil and gas industry and the capital projects through quality assurance actually. So I'm born and raised in Poland, and I did my master's in engineering and economics, um, many, many years ago, and my major at that time was quality assurance.

And my master thesis was about implementing a food quality management system into the brewery, um, Young's Brewery, based on my experiences at Young's Brewery in London. And at that time, quality assurance and ISO 9001 was a really big thing, and for me, it was a way for organization to become more competitive.

It was for them to, uh, boost their performance, build trust with customers, [00:02:00] and really win a lot of work. So that's how I used to see quality assurance. So however- I really like drinking beer. However, I had this realization that working at the brewery and smelling hops every day wasn't really something I loved, so I was always, I was looking out for different opportunities.

And at that time, I was working as a training coordinator for Institute of Quality Assurance in London, and by being in that pa- space of, um, where we had access to a lot of experts, trainers, the material around quality assurance, quality management, that's how I met one of the members. Um, and I remember his name.

His name was Mayank Rawal, and honestly, he's, like, one of the nicest person I've ever met in the oil and gas industry. So he was someone who saw my passion for quality management, and so he was [00:03:00] someone that would encourage me to explore the industry, and that's how I got into the graduate program for one of the largest EPC engineering company, MW Kellogg, which is now KBR, in London, and that's really where my career started from there

Orion Matthews

Wow, what a great story.

And I hope we can tie together your quality sort of background and intersect it a little bit with decision gates and stage gates. So to kick us off talking about a stage gate, AKA a decision gate, same words, uh, different framing, maybe can you give us a 101 of this just to help everyone, no matter where they came from, kind of understand what we're talking about when we say these things?

Iwona Wilson

Absolutely, Orion. Um, so stage gate process, which I call the decision gate process, some people call it the phase gate process, was, uh, initially developed by Dr. Robert Cooper [00:04:00] for product development, product innovation. And then later on it really moved into capital projects and it is really widely approached to managing projects in industries like oil and gas mining, infrastructure projects.

And I have learned about the stage gate process as the method, uh, to develop and execute projects, uh, when I worked for one of the largest energy producer in Australia. So I... This is what I learned, and this is also what I taught the employees for over 10 years. So the stage gate process, the idea is very simple.

It's really about moving an idea from the early thinking into the execution whilst reducing the uncertainty, you know, the unknown that exists in a project. So what it really is, it's about taking an idea, initiative, or a project and breaking it into phases and gates. So most organizations will have [00:05:00] five phases and five gates, but sometimes depends on the type of project, complexity, the nature of the opportunity, we will have less or more of those phases and gates.

So, um, we typically doing the work during the phase, and then during the gate the leadership would pause and would ask the question, "Given all we know about the opportunity, do we still want to continue investing in this project?" And then the result of this gate, they would either proceed the opportunity forward They would recycle opportunity, they will put it on hold if the time isn't right, or they would stop the opportunity altogether.

So, so typically in the first phase, I call my phase when I teach the assess phase, that's when we really assess the opportunity. That's when we explore what this opportunity is about. What [00:06:00] is the value proposition of this opportunity? What is the strategic fit? You know, how this opportunity is going to fit strategically with our organization intentions, with our strategies.

What are the major risk? And is there at least one way to realize this opportunity? And then at the end of the first phase, that's when the leadership comes in and makes the decision whether it's even worth doing more work. Okay? Do we understand what's the major problem? Okay? Um, the second phase, which I call concept phase, sometimes we call it select phase, that's when we create, identify a whole range of creative alternatives, and we analyze those alternatives, we analyze those options.

We test our value drivers, and at the end of that phase, we come up with one solution, one concept, or one alternative. And then during the gate, we test have we got the best option? That, that is going to [00:07:00] lead to the best outcome. Then the fourth phase, the develop phase, is about developing that concept further and preparing for exe- for execution.

And after that phase, that's when we go into the major decision, which I'm sure you're familiar with. This is where, uh, uh, the decision called the final investment decision. That's when the organization announces they have a project, and they ask the question, "Are we truly ready to execute this project?"

And then they move into execution. And then during the execution, we making it happen. We are executing, constructing, procuring, commissioning. This is where is the most visible part of the project. And then we move into the new environment. So the last phase, that's when we move the project into the new environment, and we evaluate whether we got what we said we going to do.

So usually between 6 to 12 months after the project moves into the new environment, we conduct the [00:08:00] post-investment review, and we, um, and we evaluate the value from what we brought into this new environment. So Stage-Gate process is seen as a governance tool, and it is a governance tool. But for me, it's really more a decision-making system, and also it's a way of thinking.

It's really a way to bring the clarity around what are we dealing with when it comes to the project. It's the way to bring confidence for decision-makers in the project team so they know what they investing in. And it's also the way to connect stakeholders from across the organization and allow them to provide contribution and knowledge, uh, for the benefit of the project.

So, and ultimately, it's a risk management tool. It's really about making sure that as we develop the project, we reduce the uncertainty by boosting our own confidence [00:09:00] so that we know what are we spending money on. That's, that's the short one-on-one training on what the- ... Stage-Gate process is about.

Chapter 02 · 3:30 – 9:15

Decision Gate 101

Orion Matthews

That was...

That's amazing. That was like an entire course just, you know, if you have someone starting in pro- in, uh, on a major project, we could just clip that and give it to them and be like, "We're in Appraise right now. Here..." Wow. We- well done. Thank you. Thank you for that overview. Um, so then maybe you could tie in a little of your exper- Well, you talked about decisions, and I, I can't wait to talk a little bit about how important those are or kinda what your take is.

But before we do, could you tie in quality, your work in ISO? Like, what drew that sort of prior experience into the Stage-Gating process? How do those intersect, like quality and Stage-Gating? Uh, I should still call it decision gating, I suppose. But anyway, is there- An overlap there? [00:10:00]

Chapter 03 · 9:15 – 18:00

Compliance Isn’t Confidence

Iwona Wilson

Uh, this is such a great question.

Uh, there is a little bit of o- overlap. I think in general, the, the intention is probably very, very similar. It is ultimately the ISO 9001 as well as Stage-Gate process ultimately is about allowing the organization to make good decisions, good quality decision. But what I would say, um, there are, there are differences, uh, in the way we approach projects in tools and frameworks available.

So let me break it down into something specific. So initially, when I worked as a quality assurance engineer for major EPC engineering companies, um, that was a few decades ago in London, my job was very simple. My job was about implementing the project quality management system on a project, and then auditing that project [00:11:00] against the contractual requirements, against international standards, as well as against the organizational expectations and requirements defined in policies.

So what I saw after working on different projects is that most projects were compliant. Most projects follow procedures. Mm-hmm. They use the right templates. They apply the right guidelines and recommendations. You know, the boxes get ticked. But despite the fact that a lot of projects were still compliant, many of those projects would experience challenges, especially during execution phase, and some of them would be even canceled, and somehow I never really knew why.

So compliance alone and compliance with the governance within your organization doesn't necessarily give you confidence and answers that you are working on the right [00:12:00] project or working on a project with the right solution. So at some point, I realized that- Projects might pass gates, and might still carry political bias or might still have hidden assumptions, and might still pass the gate with stakeholders being misaligned if the focus is so much about passing the gate as opposed to improving decision-making during the gate.

So what happened, I really didn't see working for the contractor, how can I, how can I make a bigger difference? You know, my audit reports after a while begin to be the same. They would report on the same issues around document control, communication, interfaces, and in ge- generally speaking, they were all compliant.

There were just little issues that need to be addressed. But I didn't really feel like I'm making a big difference, you know, with those reports. [00:13:00] So it's only when I got opportunity to work for the owner organization and look at projects from the idea stage. That's, that's really what Stage-Gate process allows you to do.

It's the framework that fully gives you access to bring an idea, move this into the concept, development, and eventually execution, and then the new environment. So when I was given access to how do you actually bring those ideas to life, that's when I saw what's possible and where value actually gets created, and where value cannot...

you cannot add any more value. All you have to do is just to get things done as soon as possible. So, so Stage-Gate process when, when taught properly, okay, can give you access, tools, language, and conversations which is really [00:14:00] required to help leaders make confident, informed decisions, so that when they move projects to the next phase, they actually know what they're gonna invest.

So, so that's sort of the, the realization I have, you know, that compliance alone won't give you confidence that you're working on the right projects, you're addressing, um, you, you know, you're dealing with, uh, uh, the right solution. It won't give you, you know, uh, confidence alone. So you've gotta have a framework that take it all the way from the seed when the opportunity is still an idea, you know.

That's what I would say. So a good governance should improve the quality of your decisions. It's not just about generating more documents. It's not just about even document quality, you know. It's really about enabling leaders to make good decisions

Orion Matthews

Okay. [00:15:00] This is interesting. I, uh, you know, we, I, I think we have a mutual colleague, uh, Akin Oni, who had a book that was really famous in our space called the, the, um, The Operation Was Successful But The Patient Died.

Yeah. Which is a lot of ... Kind of reminds me of what you were saying here of, uh, you can follow all the procedures and still, you know, have high quality scores, but you were seeing, like, these projects were not actually being successful for the organizations, which kind of led you to the decision gate process saying, "We're making bad decisions here.

How do we make better ones?" Even in light of doing all the right things, the patient's still dying. Like, w- what do we do here? That makes a lot of sense. So then how, why, why are the decisions ... If you follow the steps and you do the governance right, you still get the wrong decisions, why? Like, why- Okay, so- Why does that happen or how does that [00:16:00] happen, would you say?

Iwona Wilson

Okay, so it's, it's obviously we can tackle that question from so many different perspectives. I guess one thing I need to, we need to clarify is that- Um, you know, if my initial experiences was with contracting organization. So what happens is if you're intro- if you introduce change in the middle of execution or even during the development stage, you know, the contractor just gonna send you an invoice if you are the owner, right?

Orion Matthews

Yeah.

Iwona Wilson

Like, you know, if, if, if you were, if, if the, uh, if the patient goes for a surgery and then dies at the end, you know, it's, it's the, it's the family which will take the consequences very often, right? Yeah. It's not often the doctor that is following their own procedure and their own framework. So I think what is interesting, the Stage-Gate process has, gives so much, um, emphasis and, and access to this knowledge really for the owner of the project.

Mm-hmm. It's the owner that has [00:17:00] responsibility to set a project for success. Because the owner focus is always long-term. How can we create with that project real value for the community, the environment, the organization itself? Okay. There is a lot of different stakeholders and players that come at different stage and, and, and their job is just to really follow the contractual requirements as close as possible, uh, uh, demonstrate they, they provide quality services, and then exit when the work is complete.

So, so that's one distinction. Really know what is your role in the project development and execution space. Okay? So when I talk to construction companies, they are not that interested in Stage-Gate process- Right ... because if there is a change, they just gonna ask the client to pay.

Orion Matthews

Yeah.

Iwona Wilson

Right? So they are not that [00:18:00] interested.

So, um, back into your question. So why some of those decisions don't give the outcomes, okay, that intended? So- So one thing which is really important, a lot of what I teach about stage gate process, decision-making, opportunity framing, this is not necessarily my knowledge. So I mentioned to you earlier, a lot of that knowledge comes from Dr.

Robert Cooper, who developed the stage gate process for product development. But also when it comes to decision-making, opportunity framing, a lot of that knowledge comes from decision science, which we really, uh, call now decision quality, which is promoted by organizations like Society of Decision Professionals, and this, this knowledge is highly, uh, um, uh, um, taught at Harvard Universities and few other universities right now.

So one things which we, uh, which, which is important to mention is that many [00:19:00] organizations organize and structure projects around deliverables, templates,

checklist, and decision gate process wants you to shift your thinking from being activity and deliverables focus to being really decision-making focus, and that would fundamentally change what would... what is team now asked to deliver. Okay? So, um, the only reason we have phases is to prepare you for the next decision you need to make.

Chapter 04 · 18:00 – 29:00

From Deliverables to Decisions

Orion Matthews

Mm-hmm.

Iwona Wilson

The only reason you, you ask to produce deliverables is to enable some kind of decision. Okay? So a lot of projects often get stuck, and they produce deliverables after [00:20:00] deliverables without pausing to a- ask the question, what is that... what is the decision that we actually need to make?

Orion Matthews

Yeah.

Iwona Wilson

And what happens is that gonna create a lot of waste, unnecessary waste in terms of time and resources, and, and might actually even, you know, lead to a lot of deliverables that are getting produced with no value for leadership to make the decision.

Okay? And that leads really into, you know, what is decision quality Okay, so decision quality, it is a standalone discipline that is measuring the quality of decisions that you need to make based on the information you have available at the given time, and the time of making that decision, okay, regardless of the outcomes the decision is going to lead to.

So it's very important to remember when the leadership comes to the [00:21:00] decision gate to make a decision, they really gonna focus on what is the decision they need to make.

Orion Matthews

Mm-hmm.

Iwona Wilson

Okay? They need to understand what options have been considered. They need to understand where this information come from. Is the information that they are being given relevant?

Is it up to date? Where does it come from? They need to understand the value. They need to understand the, of the project. They need to understand what trade-offs have been made. They need to understand what has been... what was the logic that made the team to recommend that option as oppo- or, or not, or that option, and, and what is the commitment that is required of them.

So we call it six dimensions of decision quality. So they need to really understand that and focus their thinking on decision-making as opposed to ask teams, "Give me the 10 deliverables that you need to give me, and let me know what's their [00:22:00] status." So we have to change the focus. And, and those organizations that still run the gate reviews heavily focus on activities and deliverables They often lose the focus what's the intent of the gate review.

Orion Matthews

So quick question on this. Is the decision always proceed, recycle, stop/pause? Is that the, the ultimate decision, or do you bring other secondary decisions to the stage gate? Like, is it, you know, is there some, like, "Oh, this is a stage gate review decision that the project needs to make." Like, these are three different options that you could proceed with, or is it...

Like, tell me about, like, what makes something a stage gate decision versus just a normal, "Let's take this to management." Um-

Iwona Wilson

Okay. That's... I'm so glad you asked me that because I hear this a lot, people really getting confused, what are the different decisions that need to be made at the major [00:23:00] milestone? So just to clarify what you said, so decision requires, um, six different dimensions to be met, and you can actually measure that, okay?

So we're talking about six different dimensions that would make a good decision good, and you can actually measure that. So, um, the outcomes of decision is whether you proceed the project to the next phase-

Orion Matthews

Mm-hmm ...

Iwona Wilson

whether you recycle the project, which means ask the project team to go over the previous phase again, whether you p- put the project on hold, or whether you stop the project altogether.

So it's the outcome of that decision. If the decision at the milestone is to proceed to the next phase, that's when, that's when the organization is making the financial commitment. They [00:24:00] release the funding for the next phase. They release the resources, and, and the project team can proceed with the next phase.

So at the end of the assess phase, the major decision is what is the value proposition of what we're actually trying to achieve.

Orion Matthews

Hmm.

Iwona Wilson

Okay?

Orion Matthews

Yeah.

Iwona Wilson

So I often give very simple example because the most important when you teach stage gate process is to make sure the organization understand the principles Okay?

So it's not about, like, teaching them- It's not the

Orion Matthews

process ...

Iwona Wilson

guideline and understanding. It is really understanding the principles. So, um, so the first, the major decision after the assess phase is do we even wanna proceed? What is the problem we're trying to solve? What is the opportunity we are [00:25:00] after? And knowing the gate decision, knowing the dec- decision, the team needs to get together and create the work plan and think about what's the minimum amount of work that we need to do to satisfy the gate requirements So it's not about doing all possible deliverables that we've ever done in our life.

Orion Matthews

Mm-hmm.

Iwona Wilson

Okay? It's what's the minimum amount of work that we need to do to answer the f- the, the main question at the gate one, okay? Do we even wanna do it? You know, if you were given a block of land, let's say, in Fort Myers, Florida, and you live in Oregon, right? Like-

Orion Matthews

Mm-hmm ...

Iwona Wilson

you know, and I say, "Hey, Orion, you know, why don't you and your family build a family home in Fort Myers, Florida," right?

Well, the first question is, it's do I even con- [00:26:00] do I even wanna consider that?

Orion Matthews

Mm-hmm.

Iwona Wilson

Yeah? So, so your work is determined, but by what is your next decision gate. That's where you'll think about, what am I gonna do? What are the minimum amount of activities? What are the minimum amount of deliverables? Do I need an assurance reviews?

Do I even check whether, like, she's for real? Are you for real? You wanna give me a block of land of this size? Are you crazy? What's the catch, you know?

Orion Matthews

Yeah.

Iwona Wilson

Like, so you wanna break it down to really get clarity to make sure there is alignment between, between you and your wife, and your family, that this would be a good idea.

And the same applies to projects. And the second major decision, it's about making sure that we have gone through different options, that we understand, and we have analyzed different, different options, and we have picked the best [00:27:00] option that will give us the best outcome. So that's the focus of the second decision, of the concept definition decision.

At the end of the concept phase, you need to make sure that you understand, uh, is this gonna be a two story or one story? Would it have a swimming pool?

Orion Matthews

Mm-hmm.

Iwona Wilson

Okay. And probably before that, you even wanna understand, um, you know, should I stay or should I go?

Orion Matthews

Yeah.

Iwona Wilson

Like, what's the whole benefit of even considering this opportunity?

Where would the value come from? Okay, how would I... Y- you know, how, how would this benefit my, my family, my business, my future aspirations, uh, my children? How would that benefit different aspects of my life? And the same applies to companies. And then you have the next major decision very often, the FID decision.

Well, that's the decision when the organization need to be really confident [00:28:00] that they truly are ready to move into execution. And then the last decision is, are we ready for handover? So ultimately, at every decision gate, an organization is making two decisions. The first decision is they want to get confident that they are ready, so they've done what they said they're going to do.

They have, they have assured the deliverables are of high quality. They have addressed, they ha- uh, the, they have answered the key decisions. They have tested the assumptions. And then the second major decision they need to answer is, do we want to proceed? Which is more a business decision. Given the market, given what else we wanna do as an organization, given, given our maybe new organizational strategy, our aspiration, uh, [00:29:00] given the current pricing, okay, the, you know, given what else is going on in our organization, do we want to proceed?

So ultimately, the leadership need to answer at every gate whether we are ready to proceed and whether we want to proceed, and the outcome of this decision is whether the project should be, uh, approved to move forward, whether it should be recycled, whether it should be put on hold or stopped altogether

Chapter 05 · 29:00 – 35:00

Where Projects Are Won or Lost

Orion Matthews

Well, so what's interesting when you say that and frame it in the should I move to Florida analysis is that my, one of my questions for you was sort of what's the most important decision?

But now I kind of wonder if that's almost the... Well, if there's a different framing of it, because if you ask me do I wanna move to Florida, I think most people say, "Well, the most important decision is whether you're gonna actually write the check." But is it because sometimes you learn things when you actually kick it around, where you're like, "This is what our life would..."

You know, you sort of hit that [00:30:00] sort of like do I wanna do this, as you were saying, sort of step one question. Um, and th- and that can reveal things, where you're like, "No, I don't wanna be a Floridian." And so there's value in knowing that for the organization that goes just beyond, like, that initial should I even do this, right?

It, like, helps... It, it helps me know where I'm gonna be spending my life and where to invest more energy. Like, maybe you could talk a little bit about that, 'cause I think sometimes if people are in these projects and they do the wanna do it stage, and then it's like, "No, we don't wanna do this," it's like, "Did I just waste my time working on this?

Like, did this contribute to the organization?" Like, that's how I have oftentimes heard it be interpreted maybe, uh, i- sort of, you know, that it's like it's all about just this one project, not the organization. And maybe you can tie that together 'cause you've been hinting about, um, culture and how people need to shift the way they think about decisions.

So maybe you can talk a little bit about that, um, about [00:31:00] how organizations should be thinking about decision-making and, and how to create that culture.

Iwona Wilson

Yeah. This is, this is, um, beautiful question, and I, I'll, I will try to answer this question. Um, and a lot of the time I hear question which decision gate is the most important?

And i- i- if you, if you watch what's happening, if you watch the top performing organizations, if you watch a little bit what's, what's going on and how organizations announce projects, you can very easily say that the FID decision, the final investment decision, is the most important decision because that's when project is public.

That's when everyone gonna know that Orion and his family are actually moving to Florida, right? Mm-hmm. And that's the decision that's going to release most funding. That's where, you know, it's often we're saying the decision is kind of irreversible, right? [00:32:00] Mm-hmm. So, but what I wanna say to you that all decisions are equally important, but not all decisions have the same consequences.

Orion Matthews

Okay. Yeah

Iwona Wilson

So all decisions are very important, and they need to be answered. Okay? If they are not answered consciously, they answer it unconsciously through assumptions, and they carry different level of consequences. You with me? Mm-hmm. So, uh, um, many projects are already lost or won before that decision, and it's really about how they treat those early decisions.

So after the assess phase and after the concept phase, this is when decision-makers, leadership, that's when you and your wife would need to be crystal clear what is the opportunity about. [00:33:00] Okay? What is gonna driving... You know, why would we even consider moving to Florida? What are some of the assumptions that we are making about, about the present and about the future?

Okay? Um, this is where those early phases, this is where we often locking in our options, okay? And that's why those early decisions are often underestimated. So again, all decision gates are equally important, but not all of them carry the same level of consequences, and I believe that we need to pay more attention to those early stage decisions.

Because during that stage, when you're gonna change your mind, change directions, new information is gonna become available, making changes at that stage is way cheaper than committing to change, you know, once [00:34:00] you're on the plane moving your, your family to Florida. You with me?

Orion Matthews

Yeah. Yeah.

Iwona Wilson

So once you pass the FID stage, it gets so much more expensive, plus it's almost impossible to change, to check, right?

You, you are emotionally committed to your decision. You know, the whole family and community already knows that you are now Floridian, okay, so you're politically, um, uh, um, connected to that decision and financially invested to that decision. So I believe that by raising the importance of those early decisions can hugely benefit those FID decisions, so when we get to that FID, there's a lot more confidence, uh, inside the organization that this is the right thing to do, and this is why, and these are the different options we looked at, and this is what we're aiming to achieve at the end, and this is how [00:35:00] we're gonna make decision.

So it's easy to create the story for the public, why do we think this is the right thing to do?

Chapter 06 · 35:00 – 44:00

When Gate Reviews Become Theater

Orion Matthews

I love this framing and the, the house framing. I think one, uh, thing you've mentioned is decision, sort of, uh, that the team needs to help do the decision. So say I'm, like, vice president, I'm gonna be in that conversation.

I'm gonna go into a stage gate conversation. M- most teams of engineers are very heavily process-focused, so oftentimes they're gonna say, "Okay, I've got, you know, I've gotta deliver these deliverables to you. They ha- we have to check these check boxes," ISO, like you said. Um, but you said those things don't actually result in good decision-making, and you have to change the way the teams think about making decisions.

So how could I, as a VP listening to this, I'm like, "Okay, uh, you're right." How do you set your team up with this new mindset shift? [00:36:00] What, what advice would you give to leadership to, to create that?

Iwona Wilson

Well, I think the first, first of all, you need to understand what is your organization about, and what are your expectations around, um, around your projects.

You know, w- what are your intentions? What is your vision? What is your mission? Because stage gate process and the work your teams will create will largely depends on, you know, what kind of projects, um, you are going to develop and how do you... what is your role in that project development and execution.

Um, so anyway, if you're, if you're the owner organization, if you're someone initiating projects, um, one of the things you can do, you can first of all, um, understand, you know, what is my current process to initiate projects, develop them, and then execute them with, you know, with [00:37:00] confidence. You know, first of all is to really get aware about your current state.

Get individuals together from different s- different parts of the business, and run a little bit of a lessons learned workshop to understand what are some of the patterns running through your organization. What is currently happening? What are some of the processes that are already working for you? What are some of the processes that aren't working for you, and why?

So you first wanna get present with what have you got in place already, how your governance is helping you making decisions. You know, then you go deeper, and you're trying to evaluate each element of your decision gate process. So

you're looking at the, the decision gate review meetings. You're lo- looking at how do we start each phase. You're looking at how do we categorize and scale each project. [00:38:00] You're looking at how do we invite inputs from different functions. You're looking at how do we align teams on the work that we're going to do.

You're looking at how do we reduce uncertainty as we move from one phase to the next. And also, you're looking at how assurance, whether assurance is actually providing us with insights to make confident decisions. So ultimately, um, you will have a better understanding about what are some of the patterns running in my organization, and then that will give you insights into what do I need to now focus on?

Where are the gaps? Where teams are producing deliverables which aren't adding value to our decisions. You know, are leadership, uh, teams doing gate reviews, are they getting information that gives them clarity and confidence to approve those [00:39:00] projects so they can move forward and kill those projects that are just badly framed projects?

Okay? So that's what I would start.

Orion Matthews

How do you, uh, as an executive, spot when things are not quite right? Like, when you're walking in a, a stage gate process, you know, sometimes you have this, like, false confidence that's there. Like, what are the things you look for that would tell you that maybe things aren't...

that the processes haven't really been followed, that there's these... Are there warning signs that you can pick up on?

Iwona Wilson

Yeah, yeah. There is many things. I mean, what I mentioned earlier, you, you do wanna know what results are you getting from what you currently have in place. The other aspects to, to be really conscious and mindful about is look at how do we lead our conversations, our meetings, our, our gate [00:40:00] meetings.

You know, I'm not someone who leads gate reviews, but my background is in working upfront with teams, helping them to frame opportunities, set up the right governance systems, facilitate discussions, and really help teams to set up their project for those gate reviews. So there is a lot of insights that you can get by analyzing and watching, you know, being like the fly in the room and watching how conversations take place where, um, leaders from different functions need to get together and make some important decisions, right?

Whether it's to explore a difficult problem or to make important decisions, and gate reviews are those meetings where important decisions need to be made. So here are some of the warning signs that executive need to really watch for. So the first [00:41:00] one I would say, apart from me analyzing the structure and the agenda of the meeting, which by the way, has a lot to do with how we establish a safe and also brave space for discussion, something that people might reflect as they listen to this now is, how do we present our projects?

How do we provide this grounding presentation? Is it... Is everything super polished? Do people ask questions? Do they challenge assumptions? Or do they just accept everything without any challenge?

Orion Matthews

Mm.

Iwona Wilson

You know? Um, another thing is, like, if you, if you talk about gate reviews, because that's really where the executives might be able to show up and listen a little bit, you know, so you might look at whether at the gate review, [00:42:00] teams can clearly explain what the opportunity's about.

What is the major value driver? What are some of the assumptions they, they adopt to select the right option? Do they understand what is the biggest risk? Okay, another thing is also during, like, let's say a second gate review, if all of a su- all of a sudden someone mentions stakeholder that haven't been mentioned earlier on, then you might know that probably stakeholders engagement have been done too late.

Orion Matthews

Mm-hmm.

Iwona Wilson

Or if we're talking about a gate review, if the, if most of the focus is about, like, discussing how many documents have been done and what's the status, as opposed to having conversation that allow people to be, to improve their, their decision-making, their confidence in decision they're gonna [00:43:00] make.

So, so there's a, there's a lot that you can, uh, listen and, and just watch by listen to the quality of those conversation, and those warning signs might sort of lead, um, you know, to a false confidence about, about the project. And then another thing we could maybe discuss it's, you know, the difference in how we structure those meetings, and that's where opportunity framing workshop, you know, they are, they are so distinct from traditional meeting because of the way they are structured, the way people need to get ready for them, then, then, um, and then the outputs that they produce and then what that leads to.

Orion Matthews

Well, tell us a little bit about those. I'm curious. Yeah.

Iwona Wilson

Okay. Okay, so, okay, so, uh, um, let me think [00:44:00] about it. So- Traditional meetings, okay, so traditional meetings are usually well-designed if you wanna bring different individuals together to do a status update. But if you are trying to make important decisions, or if you wanna explore the problem, or frame a big, complex opportunity with the, with a lot of moving parts and uncertainties, they're not always structured the right way.

They're not designed that way. So let me say to you why. I mean, if you bring the bunch of people together, people are usually not on their best behavior.

Chapter 07 · 44:00 – 1:01:00

The Groan Zone

Orion Matthews

Yeah.

Iwona Wilson

Okay? They, they tend to protect their own interests, especially if you bring functional managers from different functions together when you ask them to explore the new opportunity, right?

You know, they, they tend to think about what's, what's the priority for them. [00:45:00] And they often, they often self-censor themselves. So what that means, even if

they ask questions, um, if the culture within the organization in those meeting is, is such that leaders would say, um, "We've already covered this." Or, you know, "Let's keep it simple." You know, if they rush those conversations, like, what happens is those leaders self, self-censor themselves. They actually don't openly share the concerns, they, they don't ask the right questions, because the culture of the organization is, "Let's keep it going.

Let's move on." Okay? And so what happens is, I like to bring, um, the expertise from Sam Kaner, and I often talk about Sam Kaner and his research around collaborated decision-making. Because Sam Kaner, who is expert in group decision-making, he says, [00:46:00] "When individuals are invited to the room to make important decisions, there are basically three parts in this conversation."

There is the part when we, uh, when we invite different opinions, when, when we diverge, when we, uh, when we ask questions, with the intention that later on we're gonna converge discussion, we're gonna narrow down our thinking, we're gonna plan our action, and eventually make decision. But what happens, even in well-structured meeting, when you allow for divergent thinking and convergent thinking, somewhere in between, teams tend to experience tension.

Orion Matthews

Mm-hmm.

Iwona Wilson

Especially if the problem is very big, if the decision to make has huge implications. He calls it the experience, like a grown zone. Like, it gets messy. Okay? People feel the disagreement, [00:47:00] discomfort. And a lot of leaders don't like sitting in that place when there's a lot of uncertainty and, and messiness, and when they experience conflict.

So what they do that moment, they say, "Well, let's stop. Let's schedule the next meeting for next week."

Orion Matthews

Yeah.

Iwona Wilson

And that's why strategy meetings often take three months. If they could actually take, you know, one day or two days. And what happens is, the, the messiness, the ground zone, it's a natural consequence of diversity in the room, and it's almost a fundamental.

It's necessary to create eventually shared understanding and sustainable solution. You with me? And those teams that are able early on to go through those difficult conversations, [00:48:00] the conflicts, those teams tend to execute faster with less surprises. And that's where opportunity framing workshop are distinct from traditional meetings, because they bring a neutral framing facilitator whose role is to help their teams, help the team to do their best thinking together, and carry them through the ground zone so they can land with shared understanding about what we're trying to achieve, and what's the decision that we need to make, how we can proceed.

So you need someone with no vested interest- Mm-hmm ... in the outcome, that would purely be interested in helping the group to go through the process, and will let people, um, contribute based on their expertise and knowledge in such a way they can come out with [00:49:00] alignment. An opportunity framing workshop can be really messy, and can be painful, and they can be uncomfortable, but this is the cost of alignment

Orion Matthews

That is super powerful, and it re- it reminds me of workshops that maybe have happened with teams where you're trying to do team building.

And in order to create a strong team, you know, there's forming, norming, storming, and performing, right? So it sounds like there's a similar kind of framework that needs to go through to do a decision. So one of the triggers of saying, "Hey, are we making good decisions?" might be like, did we do any... Was there that zone where there was conflict, and people had to, like, move past it and other ideas?

If it, if the conversation was just straight away, like, "Yeah, it was a no-brainer. We all knew we should definitely do this project," and we green-lighted it, then you might have a team that's just not as integrated. So there's, like, that, um, having your team [00:50:00] show up if you've already done the work to integrate them probably is a helpful tool because teams that have low integration indexes avoid conflict, and they haven't really worked through that.

And so does that create an additional barrier? Like, is there sort of, like, team integration work you wanna do to even get to a decision-making meeting 'cause almost like, you know, therapy or whatever, if you're with your spouse and you can't decide whether to go to Florida or not, sometimes it might be because you're conflict avoidant, and then that means you just can't make the decision.

So is there some organizational capacity level of conflict that you need to get to to be good at stage gates?

Iwona Wilson

Yeah, yeah. It's, it's interesting, uh, what you say. Well, let me just, um, um, explain one important thing which I think is really relevant to what you're saying, which is- Um, it will be a little bit different in a family environment where decision-makers obviously know each other very well.

And what [00:51:00] might be helpful for, like, the family situations, it's, it's the right process. So, um, and, you know, just to give an example, um, my husband is very well inducted into Opportunity Framing Workshop. And one of the biggest challenge when individuals who really know each other well, and if they need to make important decision, one of the biggest challenges, they sit next to each other, and they just converse next to each other.

And every time one person speaks, the other one is actually thinking about what they're gonna say and how they're gonna respond without even listening to what this person says, right? This is just so typical. You know, we tend to really respond before we listen to what the other person say. So in this situation, um, something that might work for your family, something that works in my family, is that we actually bring up a big flip chart.

We take Post-it notes, me and my husband. We don't sit opposite to each other. Mm-hmm. We sit next to each other. In fact, we don't even [00:52:00] look at each other, and we quietly write down on Post-it notes what are some of the issues, questions, and concerns that we see in this coming opportunity. And then so what we're trying to do, we're trying to get our thoughts out of our heads and make them visible on the wall.

And by doing it this way, we both feel fully self-expressed because everything we said is structured, s- you know, is defined on Post-it notes. And then we stand next to each other, and we say, "Okay, well, take me through your Post-it note. What are some of those issues?" And before we even do that, we actually categorize them.

"Oh, I've got the same thing," or, "You've got the same thing? I've got the same thing. Well, let's put them together. So what is this?" Or, or, "Here is the financial concerns we have." Mm-hmm. Okay, or, "Here is the work concerns we have." So doing just very simple process, you shift [00:53:00] from fighting who needs to say what to actually analyzing and looking at your issues before your eyes, as opposed to just in your head, you know?

So that's one thing. So often people lack a process when they can fully self-express themselves in the most efficient way, so not something that will drag for weeks, you know? Because you need that momentum. Okay, back into projects. So in projects, the difference in project is when you apply Opportunity Framing Workshop right in the assess phase, you don't have a team yet

Orion Matthews

Right.

Yeah

Iwona Wilson

So, so the team stage development doesn't apply as much, and what happens is this is actually... This can be either an opportunity or a challenge, which means if the organization have [00:54:00] already a lot of conflict, if there is a lot of silos between different functions, that's why you can see opportunity framing is often avoided- Mm-hmm

because, because different functions have different priorities, and they are not willing to come together. So then opportunity framing could be a blessing and could actually, um, uh, ultimately impact the culture of the organization. That's what I strongly believe. Those companies that consistently apply opportunity framing to, to bring stakeholders from across the function and create clarity and alignment on what we're trying to achieve, if they do it consistently with the initiatives and project, they tend to, um, create more positive, vibrant culture where individuals know they are invited to [00:55:00] make decisions.

Their experiences, their thoughts, um, are invited. They are welcomed, okay? As opposed to those teams, those organizations where there's a lot of silos and, and they try to rush through those early stages. Y- you know, rushing through early stages, you know, has also a benefit because that might look like you know what you're doing.

You can prove, "Hey, here is my well-defined business case. Look how fast we went through those cases. We've done this before, so let's do it again. Let's copy and paste the same option." Okay? And then they rush through those decisions, but also what they do, they don't allow experts that they already often have from across the different functions to contribute to their plan, and if people don't feel like they can contribute, they begin to disengage.

They lose the trust [00:56:00] to their process. You know, they lose the trust to the governance and, and then they, um, you know, they often leave

Orion Matthews

There's these people during major project stage gates that I feel like might be on the contractor side, or they're on the team, and they're the ones that are like, "I coulda told you you never coulda gotten that done."

And they somehow feels like sometimes with these decisions, there is some hidden variable information that never makes it to those meetings, that in hindsight was obvious to the foreman that works at, for the EPC contractor. Or, like, how do you in, how do you source that st- how do you avoid that from happening?

Iwona Wilson

Yeah, I mean, um, um, it, it really depends when you see those inconsistencies and when you see gaps in processes, or, uh, [00:57:00] when you wonder, you know, why people did not take this information into consideration when making decisions. Uh, well, there is, there's this number of reasons why that happens, and, and that's why I often invite companies to be, uh, really honest with their processes and make sure they periodically review, um, you know, the adequacy of each process.

You know, does it actually meet the purpose that you want this to meet? And that cascades down to decision-making, and then to how they source the information, how, where they bring this information from, and also who they invite to those meetings

Orion Matthews

Is it like, you know, the, after the Challenger explosion and NASA realized that they had m- missed that O-ring, and that decision was, you know, to, [00:58:00] to...

The go, no-go was effectively like a management override of people that were really down on the ground, and they could have prevented it. And so now they have, like, a process where anyone can kind of... They, they have changed the way they approach processes to facilitate, like, taking these people that normally wouldn't have any power to stop a shuttle launch and giving it to them.

Is that an approach that major projects should consider, or is that already been sort of baked in or, um... Yeah, do you have some-

Iwona Wilson

Yeah, yeah. I mean, you know, it's, it's... I... Well, my, uh, recommendation is that every project has opportunity framing workshop. And back into your example, I mean, if people down on the ground are not invited to express their opinions, um, well, that is gonna impact, you know, decision-making.

That is gonna often show up later on a surprise [00:59:00] that could have been prevented.

Orion Matthews

Okay.

Iwona Wilson

You know? And, and, and that's why early on in the framing workshop, when there's a lot of unknowns, a lot of uncertainties, if you invite people with a vested interest and knowledge to, um, of, of different parts of the project development and execution, if you invite stakeholders from different functions, if you invite someone with operation experience, someone with execution experience, someone familiar with the nature and complexity of the project, uh, someone, uh, who is then going to represent the company with, uh, with the regulator- Mm-hmm

someone who will then need to speak to the community, obviously someone with project controls experiences, project management experiences, someone with the HSE experiences, are we already incorporating [01:00:00] safe practices and strategies right from the beginning? So, so early on, if you make sure you have the right stakeholders and you create the space where they feel safe to express their thoughts, their ideas, their issues, their questions- Yeah

and then you have the way to organize those questions so that they can feed decision-making, they can, they can contribute to business case, the assumptions from framing are being translated into cost and schedule estimate. Okay? The insights from opportunity framing are already incorporated into your, uh, regulator and stakeholders management plan.

So, so that is already the first step and something very practical you can do that would save you a lot of time in recycling and prevent [01:01:00] a lot of surprises, especially around community, uh, you know, around safety. It can prevent you... It can prevent a lot of surprises down the line if you're able to, to listen, slow down at the start, and invite the contribution, work on what is the thinking of my team before I actually go and make decisions.

So that could be probably something easy, uh, to introduce by any project.

Chapter 08 · 1:01:00 – 1:06:00

Six Dimensions of Decision Quality

Orion Matthews

That makes a lot of sense, and maybe it gets into the six dimensions that you mentioned of a decision, is how... First of all, I don't know what those are. Um, maybe you can help me with those six dimensions, and should I have known those, having been through...

Do, do you want your team to understand those six dimensions? Do you frame around that during those workshops?

Iwona Wilson

Uh, a very good question. So this is, you're talking about the decision quality wheel. Yeah. I teach about this. It is [01:02:00] very, you know, as you learn about the six dimension, I'm gonna repeat for you again those six dimension, but I know that a lot of people listen to those dimensions and they say, "Ivona, this is such a common sense."

Like, it is like, "Why are you even telling me this?" Right. Because it is so much common sense, and I often say that the biggest challenge is, is if the common sense isn't applied early enough, you know? So I use that decision quality. I teach about this. It is very much aligned with framing method, with the framing process, and decision quality as a method where you can measure the alignment around those six dimension.

This is something that you can use before the major decision is going to be made. Or soon after to check the quality of the decision. So just for everyone again, so the sixth dimension of decision quality is number one, make sure you have appropriate frame. You [01:03:00] understand what you're trying to achieve.

You know what you know, you know what you don't know. You-- The second dimension is that you identify, you create a wide range of alternatives. The third one is that you know where the information comes from. You have access to relevant and up-to-date information. The fourth one is you, you understand the value drivers and you understand the trade-offs when it comes to making decisions.

The fifth one, there is some logic in you can j- you can demonstrate how you've made that decision. There is a process behind. And then the last one is there is commitment to action from the major stakeholders who need to take actions. So the quality of decision is as good as the weakest will.

Orion Matthews

Hmm.

Iwona Wilson

So you might [01:04:00] have clarity around what you're trying to achieve.

You might understand the trade-offs, okay? You might understand where the information come from, but if there's no commitment, nothing happens. Then it doesn't

Orion Matthews

work.

Iwona Wilson

Okay? You might even have a commitment, but if you have a poor quality information, if you're making wrong assumptions, the quality of, of that decision will be really low, and the impact it will have will be, will be damaging So, so these six questions I like people to remember, and if you think about it, they are so simple that you can actually get together with your team in any function, whatever decision you're gonna make, and you can just go over those six decisions and discuss it with your team before you make a decision or soon after.

Hmm. So you can apply it for any major decision.

Orion Matthews

Um, that's very, very helpful, [01:05:00] and, uh, kind of leads into sort of o- o- one of my final questions, but just to repeat these. So the first, uh ... So we have, you ... The, on the decision, you need to know, uh, what was the first one? What you want to do. You have to ...

Iwona Wilson

Uh, uh, appropriate frame.

Number one- Yeah ... have you got clarity- Frame ... on what you're trying to achieve?

Orion Matthews

And then do you have the information, the value question. Options. Is it logical? And then do you have commitment?

Iwona Wilson

Yeah, so six decision. What are you trying to achieve? Right. And then what are the options? Yeah. So decisions, decisions is all about consciously choosing what I'm trying to do given the information I have available, the options I'm considering, uh, given the time of making the decisions, the value, the trade-offs, and then knowing that there is commitment required.

So I need to ask [01:06:00] the question, well, who are the key stakeholders that need to be involved? What amount of commitment is required to make that decision stick?

Chapter 09 · 1:06:00 – 1:32:00

The Takeaway & the Billion-Dollar Math

Orion Matthews

So you must have a lot of fun in these meetings 'cause with a lot of the conflict, you know, take people through those and then you're in this uncomfortable space.

I'm sure there's some tears and, uh, yelling and all sorts of stuff. It must be, uh, a, a really good reason to have somebody work through these workshops that can be a neutral party to, like, walk people through that really important phase, um, and then teach them the skills about what it means to make decisions.

One thing that I really learned today when talking with you is sort of my one takeaway, and I'm, I, I'm really curious what your takeaway would be, is that these decision-making workshops are, like, they're really important but they're also... There's a cultural element to it, that if you're a really high performing organization, [01:07:00] it seems to me that un- that decision-making is not just at the s- at these gates.

It's actually something that needs to be inculcated into the entire organization somehow. And if you do get, like, successful decision gate processes, um, you know, that's great. But if you can actually find a way to work that same opportunity framing into the rest of your organization and your teams and, and it's organically bubbling up, uh, that really is the prize.

And, uh, that's, that's really interesting, and I just appreciate you coming on and talking about that. But what would be your one takeaway if you wanted people to, to sort of lear- like, to remember something, um, from what we've talked about? What, what, what would you hope they might have for?

Iwona Wilson

Uh, well, my one takeaway would be if you are really serious about creating a culture where you can h- [01:08:00] um, you can have, um, predictable as much as you can project success, um, you need to really look at the m- uh, the mindset, the decision gate mindset that you have, um, um, in your organization.

You need to aim to create some sort of language fluency across different functions, so we all speak from the same hymn sheet and we understand the decision gate process language. And you also need, um, framework for decision-making that people trust, that, um, um, that empowers individuals inside those teams to voice their opinion, and also enables decision-makers to make good, confident decisions.

Orion Matthews

It's so interesting that, like, uh, I really appreciate what you said there, and something we probably should have told people in the beginning is the gravity of what we're talking [01:09:00] about here. So, uh, I think I looked these numbers up a little while ago, but, uh, for a billion-dollar project, the average loss that you can expect...

So if you do 10 billion dollar projects, you will expect five of them to overrun, and your average, like, of those overruns is gonna be, uh, it's gonna be about, uh, $500 million. So if you think about, like, just sort of the cost of these decisions, they're massive. That most pro- So when you budget a billion dollar project, you budget an average overrun of 500 million.

That's how bad our decision making is in this space, but it's also just the opportunity that's on the table if you have good decision making and, and thoughts around this process. Like, you're talking really big dollars here. Um, so if you get those decision-making pieces right, it could be... could make a, a huge difference between an organization surviving or not in many ways.

So, [01:10:00] uh, the gravity of what you're doing and the work you're doing is, is exciting to talk about, and I really appreciate you doing that. I mean, uh, just to shift over a little bit, let's talk about people that are inspired by what you're doing, like students, people that wanna get into the space. You came through it through the quality lens.

Um, what advice would you give for a student that might be watching this episode and wants to go into this space, maybe do these kinds of workshops,

Iwona Wilson

facilitate?

Well, there's one advice I would give to any students. It's really, you know, if I think about the next generation of, uh, of leaders and what would be really useful for them, you know, given the challenges that we have, uh, in most, um, countries, as well as the, uh, rise of AI, um, I would say that seek opportunities where you can polish your, [01:11:00] um, um, your critical thinking skills.

Orion Matthews

Hmm.

Iwona Wilson

Okay? So this is, this is really huge, and this is what I love the most about opportunity framing, where people see there is a distinction between given and assumption When people see that actually a lot of the stuff can be negotiated, and it's very easy to lose focus and add a lot of stuff into the scope of those billion-dollar projects, and then get lost with, uh, during execution just because the scope is maybe too big.

That often happens when you have brownfield projects. Mm-hmm. Um, so anyway, back into students, I would say seek opportunities where you'll, uh, polish your critical thinking skills. So definitely seek ways where you can show initiative, where you can get involved in something [01:12:00] you love doing, um, where, you know, whatever that is.

And those people, those students who actually have... They already know something that I mentioned that sort of rings the bell. I know that University of Houston, for example, they have their own chapter, Society of Decision Professionals, and they always open to, um, uh, to bring new people on board, and they collaborate with the industry, they collaborate with or- large organizations, they collaborate with myself when they bring different individuals who teach students some of those decision-making tools that they can apply in their life.

You know, they can apply in whatever career they choose for themselves. And because I think there's nothing, um, more empowering for young individuals, it's giving them tools so they can make their own decisions confidently, [01:13:00] even if those decisions may seem, may seem really ridiculous from start. But if they get access to some of those distinctions that we teach in our program, if they get to learn that whatever they do i- i- in needs understanding about what are you trying to achieve, whatever you do, uh, will have choices.

No matter what you do will, um, uh, will have an impact. If they, they get to learn some of those critical questions that need to be asked, I think they can be more confident in whatever career they choose. Uh, so that's a little bit of a long answer to this question , but I, um, but I agree with you. This is a knowledge I, I love.

I'm on a mission to, uh, make opportunity framing as a tool available to any team, any individual. Um, we have just opened our first virtual [01:14:00] cohort, where the intention is to eventually create a community of practitioners, uh, p- uh, uh, practitioners, facilitators who wanna serve the project community by helping them to make good decisions.

And for students, uh, what an amazing way to actually access, you know, short course and get access to, like, you know, a professional network of, of, uh, practitioners, uh, cutting-edge knowledge which will allow them to work with, uh, facilitators, uh, m- decision-making, like practitioners, you know, framing facilitators, and really be the one who knows how to ask important questions before those decisions are made.

Orion Matthews

Well, you mentioned something. You mentioned AI. Just wanna take a little, uh, beat to talk about that 'cause students today, everything they're looking at is from the lens of, like, is AI going to, [01:15:00] uh, destroy this field or not? Do you have some thoughts on that? Is it... Uh, is AI helping people make better decisions, or is it actually- doing the opposite.

What, what's your take on AI these days for decision-making?

Iwona Wilson

This is really interesting. I mean, we can talk about AI in general, and then AI in decision-making. So if you look at AI in general, obviously it is such a hot topic, and every organization is really jumping into right now, um, uh, implementing tools with AI component, uh, you know, creating efficiency to their processes, you know, speeding up on some of the work they do when they create deliverables.

Uh, and, and I'm all up for, like, creating efficiency. Um, when it comes to decision-making, there are a few distinction which is... which are important to make. So no matter, um, uh... Oh, how to [01:16:00] say it. So when it comes to decision-making, especially at those project decisions, we're really talking about, um, organizations creating m- uh, making decision that have huge consequences.

So if we let AI make decision for us, I mean, there are still consequences that will have to be absorbed and, and impacted and the, the project, the organization, the teams will be impacted, right? And the AI is not gonna pay for whatever's gonna come out in our decisions. Mm-hmm. So I think whatever we do, we have to be very thoughtful, very intentional, to really first of all understand what areas inside our organization, um, um, could benefit from efficiency that could be, you know, um, accelerated by adding some AI component.

You know, are those areas well-known? [01:17:00] Are those areas well-defined already? Do we understand the intent of those areas that we now wanna bring AI to? Okay, so I think framing workshops can be often, can be also used to really explore some of those opportunities for those companies that trying to bring AI to the organization by making sure that there is organizational clarity around what is it that we're trying to achieve, how this is going to benefit our organization, and to be specific, how this is going to add value to our business, our clients, and other major stakeholder.

Okay? And, and what is gonna be the impact short-term and also long-term on our organization, our clients, the offers we have, and the environment. So, um, so this is definitely interesting. It is definitely... It, it is, it is an early [01:18:00] stage. I'm watching that space, um, of, you know, how AI can help with decision-making.

Um, I think AI can definitely speed up a lot of the tasks that we do. Uh, it can help with brainstorming by helping, let's say, to categorize and organize our thoughts. So I can see ways even inside the workshop where we can save some time by adding AI component into this. Mm-hmm. Uh, but then ultimately we have to be very clear about, um, decisions that need to be made, uh, why they need to be made, at what time they need to be made, what are the consequences of those decisions, and making sure that technology is not ahead of, like, the humans, you know?

Yeah. Um, because ultimately the company will have to, um, take the consequences of those decisions.

[01:19:00]
Orion Matthews

Um, well, thanks, thanks for your sort of... You're on the leading edge of it, and it's, it's anyone's... Everyone is waiting to see what the world will look like with AI, and, uh, yeah, I'll, I'll, I'll be tuning in as well.

It's gonna be interesting. What if someone wants to get better at this decision-making? So maybe you can tell us about any books, podcasts, please let us... tell us about your book, um, that people can stay sharp and in-the-know on the latest in decision science or just go deeper. What, what resources would you advise?

Iwona Wilson

Okay. If someone is really serious about things like decision quality, the whole science behind decision-making, I recommend joining the Society of Decision Professionals. Uh, it's a non-profit organizations with... organization with chapters all around the world. We have one in Houston. I'm not sure about Oregon.

But the one in Houston, they do meet frequently. They gather [01:20:00] professionals from different industries who come together to network, uh, share different tools, uh, exchange ideas, and then annually they meet at large conferences. They usually gather professionals from oil and gas and pharma, but I'm... From what I know, they do open up for new industry, new professionals, consultants as well, um, at, at all times.

So I would say Society of Decision Professionals would be, like, the, the foundational body of knowledge. And on their website, there is a list of recommended books that I would also recommend. Uh, personally, I would recommend Decision Analysis by David Skinner.

Orion Matthews

So

Iwona Wilson

David Skinner, um, h- it's actually a found- he's a founder of Society of Decision Professionals.

He's my dear, uh, colleague who also wrote the foreword for my book. [01:21:00] So I'm just so, um, uh, humbled that someone with such great accomplishments was, uh, willing, um, to write forewords, uh, for my book. But I think his book, it's, uh, it's... it gives you a, a real solid foundation to decision science, including opportunity framing, um, probabilities.

How do we assess uncertainties? So those of you who are really into analysis statistics, they're gonna have a ball by just reading Decision Analysis by David Skinner. Uh, another one, it's obviously Where Projects Are Won or Lost by Ivana Wilson and Austin Wilson, Practical Guide to Early Decisions, Framing and Governance.

Uh, so just a little bit about that book. This is a very short book, and this book, uh, was intentionally designed as a handbook for my course participants. So if you [01:22:00] look at the index, it's basically aligned with my, with the structure of my program. So, so this is like a very short version. If someone just want a quick short version, this is a really good resource.

Uh, I really can't think of podcasts, um, off top of my head because I am, uh, more intrigued by the psychology of decision-making, and I follow more, like, the, uh, you know, manifesters when it comes to, like, manifesting good results, you know. So I go a little bit against the, um, the foundation in decision analysis that everything needs to be logical because I do think that you can also attract, uh, good luck for your project.

Um, you can attract the right stakeholders and contractors. Uh, so, like, right now I'm personally following my intuition and educating myself in that sort of illogical space, you know?

Orion Matthews

Well, and I mean, there are some books about that that are really [01:23:00] interesting, like, um, I think one's called Words of Power that talks about how essentially the universe is just a giant- information parser.

And so as you sort of, uh, navigate that universe, you attract th- um, you, you attract what you send out in a way. And so I think there is a lot of logic ... There is a way to try to get at the logic of what you're saying, that, like, good luck can be manifested. And, um, it sort of tiptoes into what's m- many in

that have come from traditional business, uh, science sides might be slightly uncomfortable with, but I think it's brilliant that you just mentioned that, um, because there is, uh, a lot about the laws of attraction that can play in to, like, how reality unfolds for an organization. Um, yeah.

Iwona Wilson

Yeah, I mean, absolutely.

I mean, you can [01:24:00] literally ask yourself, ask your project team a question, like, do they believe in the project?

Orion Matthews

Mm-hmm.

Iwona Wilson

Do they believe in the organization? And if you think about it, opportunity framing, because it happens right at the start before we even talk about project, that's when we even don't know if it's the right thing to do.

It's an, it's an opportunity in itself to create excitement around the organization and, like, believe, you know, that this is the right thing to do. And given that we still need to be detached from the outcome, right? Mm-hmm. So if it's not the right time, it's not the right time. And the same principles exist in the law of attraction.

You know, create that excitement for what is it that you're trying to achieve. Yeah. Be very clear on intention, how this is going to fit with who you are as an organization. [01:25:00] A- allow people to contribute into that, you know, space. But at the same time, detach. You know, if it's not the right time, like, don't get upset about it, you know?

Yeah. And that's why the early stages historically are very confidential. They are very private spaces. Like, this is not when the organizations are raving, they are thinking about a project. Like, the first three phases, they ... Especially the first, the first phase, super confidential. And you can see that confidentiality is a little bit broke by local governments.

So if you look at infrastructure projects, a lot of them get into public domain way too early. Right? Because they have- Yeah ... that sort of political bias. There is the other agenda on their mind. But, but, but historically, the first two phases were very confidential. The first phase is when the company's looking at, [01:26:00] you know, what's the best opportunity to move forward?

Now, we don't even go to media, we don't go to contractors. This is our own in-house opportunity. This is our own in-house, you know, manifestation process. Yeah. We wanna make sure that we plant the right seed before we see the benefits, so we first need to make sure that we've got something that we can believe in Right?

And then believe before you see.

Orion Matthews

And the, you know, the privacy part is really key there because the governor all of a sudden knows that you're planning on or thinking about something. That pressure is just unwanted at that stage, right? Sure. You, you don't want external pressure, and then you also have external consequences all of a sudden.

So it sounds like, you know, these decisions shouldn't have as much consequence during that early phase. Um, and if it's not private, it will [01:27:00] have negative externalities that you can't control for, essentially. Yeah. That's really helpful. Well, um, can you tell us a little bit about your company? 'Cause you've, you put people through these workshops.

I think you recently went into the consulting space. How can people get in touch with you, work with you? I did wanna mention, I did read your book, um, in Hawaii, actually. I was... I meant to take a photo of it with, on the beach. Uh, I really appreciate the signed copy. Uh, and it, and it is a great read. It's a good light read too.

It... The way you've organized it, you can bounce around a little bit too. Um, and um, yeah, I think it's, it's an awesome book. So how can people pick it up? Is it on Amazon? And how do they get in touch with you? And may- talk a little bit about your business.

Iwona Wilson

Okay. Thank you so much, Orion. Uh, so I am the co-founder and, and, and CEO of the Wolfson Peace Consulting.

We are a small boutique consulting companies helping leaders with the early stage decision-making, uh, by, um, giving them [01:28:00] access to our education programs, facilitation services, and consulting services. Um, so what do we currently do? Uh, we focus on sharing information and promoting education around decision gate process and opportunity framing workshops.

So we're really on a mission to be a global education provider for project teams, especially those in the oil and gas, renewables, infrastructure projects, railway, as well as transportation, and provide them with access to education, how best is to set up those projects for success using decision gate process and opportunity framing workshop.

So we currently have, um, eight weeks cohorts where you get access to our video training, weekly sessions, our guides, procedures, templates. And opportunities to meet other peers, people like yourself struggling [01:29:00] with projects, wishing for better outcomes. Um, and, and, um, they also have opportunity to ask questions, share their own learning.

So ultimately, we build a community of, uh, fans and practitioners, uh, who enable better decision-making and that ultimately leads to project success. So we provide educational programs, we facilitate those workshops, and we help with, um, improving, um, decision gate process. So you can either follow me on LinkedIn, uh, just contact me directly, check out our website, www.wilson.biz, or check out our training, uh, portfolio on, um, academy.wilson.biz.

And if anyone wanna check out a book, please, you can find it on Amazon at any stage. Just Google my name or the title. [01:30:00] Um, and, and yeah, just be always open for feedback. People read this book, if there's something they disagree with, please let us know. Um, we wanna know what is it that people need, what areas we disagree with, and, uh, and when-- if they do actually use it and it does make a difference in the way they do their work, uh, we would love to hear those case studies too, 'cause we're already planning a second edition where we actually publish case studies, how decision gate process can actually enable good, um, good decisions for the benefit of projects.

Orion Matthews

Ivona, thank you so much for your time today, and, um, we'll include links to all of those books and your website and everything else for people. So if, uh, you're- you've got the podcast up or you're on YouTube or whatever, check the comment, uh, the details section, and all of those, uh, things we've mentioned in the episode will be available to you.

So Ivona, uh, one [01:31:00] last question. Are you gonna go to any other conferences this year? Anything that... Um, I think we met at the AACE Houston conference. Do you have anything else on the agenda that people might be able to go, um, watch your presentations?

Iwona Wilson

Oh, yeah, yeah. Uh, thank you so much for asking this. Well, I'm gonna be at the Global Project Management Forum in Riyadh in September, uh, where I will lead two hours masterclass, and this is really the biggest platform for project managers in the world.

So that's, uh, that's one place. I will probably be at the PMI Houston conference in August. I'm not sure if I will get a chance to speak or attend. Uh, that's the, that's the two new opportunities.

Orion Matthews

Great. All right. Well, if you're ever in Houston, or if you're on the other side in Riyadh, then, uh, maybe you can catch Ivona.

Thank you so much for coming on and joining us today. Uh, happy to have you on and look forward to, uh, the next conversation we have. Thank you.

Chapter 10 · 1:32:00 – 1:50:00

The Capability Gap

[01:32:00]
Iwona Wilson

Yep. Thank you so much, Orion. Thank you.

Orion Matthews

All right. So that's a wrap. Did we cover everything, or do you wanna talk about any other topics that we can splice in, um, if you feel like we haven't hit something?

I'm sorry. I

Iwona Wilson

was raving so much, you know? And you pl- um, maybe you can cut out some of the ti- repetitions I was making. There is actually one topic that we can- Mm-hmm ... I can quickly answer.

Orion Matthews

Yeah.

Iwona Wilson

Which is, I think this is really relevant. Uh, you had it on your list. It was everybody in major capital project says they have a stage gate.

Orion Matthews

Yeah. Yes, that's true.

Iwona Wilson

And then why- Why

Orion Matthews

do we keep seeing the billion dollar surprises? Do we keep seeing...

Iwona Wilson

Yeah. Maybe

Orion Matthews

you can ask me. Let me ask that. Let me ask that. So, so everybody in major capital projects says they have a stage gate process, but why do we still keep seeing these billion dollar surprises in the space?

Iwona Wilson

Wow, Orion. I love that question, and I love that question because it's really aligned with what we see with our clients. [01:33:00] Uh, what we see right now happening, companies do have stage gate process in place, but they still experience project overruns, cancellation, or they create projects with not enough value based on what they wanted.

So why is that happening?

Orion Matthews

Yeah.

Iwona Wilson

And that happening because having a process in place, it's not the same of us having capabilities. So that's the biggest misconception in this industry and in a stage gate area. So many organizations would have phase gate process, you know, some phases, some gates, maybe some templates, maybe approval list-

Orion Matthews

Mm-hmm

Iwona Wilson

maybe even mandatory checklist for the gate review. But what is missing, very few organization actually [01:34:00] teach how to think through uncertainty, how to frame opportunities, how to create alignment around key stakeholders, how to identify, name, and challenge assumptions, how to make quality decisions, how to understand, uh, when a project is heading in the wrong direction So they may have some Stage-Gate in place, they may have a process in place, but they are missing real capabilities.

And honestly, many companies ask about Stage-Gate process usually after something major happens, after a major overrun- Mm-hmm ... or some big public issue, or investor pressure or community pressure, or change of a leadership, okay? Or some operational underperformance that happens over a long [01:35:00] time. So that's usually when they begin to see there is a difference be- between having an approval system-

Orion Matthews

Mm-hmm

Iwona Wilson

and having a decision-making system

Orion Matthews

Which is the difference between having a process and then having capability, as you sort of- Yeah ... started out there. Yeah. Yeah,

Iwona Wilson

yeah. Process and even a system, right? So it's not just, like, one document that you just read once in a while. So the other thing is there is a bit of a knowledge gap, uh, in the industry right now between, uh, the high-performing top companies, like in the oil and gas industry, that already have, uh, well-defined processes, uh, the right maturity.

They have the capabilities. And those new companies, those fast-growing companies, those that never really inhabited any project development, those that have variety of experiences and knowledge about [01:36:00] front-end loading, but they still haven't dedicated the time to agree what would be their process to bring ideas, and then- Mm-hmm

turn them into well-defined project, and then execute that project. So those are the companies that tend to run into execution, skip stakeholders alignment, skip option analysis, and they often are not clear around the real value of what they're trying to achieve.

Orion Matthews

Let me ask you this about that, um, 'cause you mentioned usually larger organizations, more sophisticated, they have the process and the capability.

Can you backslide on your capability but keep your process? Like, as you, you know, become a highly sophisticated organization, you've got a really well-defined stage gate process. What do you have to do to keep your capability up, or is there a connection between the two of those? Like...

Iwona Wilson

Yeah, I think [01:37:00] there's a lot of connection between two of those.

So you can't really, uh, be proud of the process that is well-defined, but you don't really have well-defined capabilities across the organization. So this is also the biggest knowledge gap when it comes to, so what are those key capabilities when it comes to stage gate process?

Orion Matthews

Yeah.

Iwona Wilson

And, and what happens is, you just alluded into those, um, uh, top-performing organizations.

A lot of them, uh, with well-defined stage gate process, a lot of the time they also, uh, develop so much in the process that the process gets very bureaucratic. And, and so there are those two extremes.

Orion Matthews

Yeah.

Iwona Wilson

You know, your process might be either not very well developed with poor capabilities, or your process can be overly developed- Mm-hmm

with very well-defined competencies. But also what happens is there is a [01:38:00] f-focus on massive document production, on some impossible gate requirements, on excessive approvals, you know, lengthy decision cycles. And, and then the conversation on the project team, rather than how can we improve decision quality, uh, at the...

during the phase and the gate, it's all about how can we pass the gate. You know, let's produce those deliverables. I don't know how they add value to decision-makers- Mm-hmm ... but they are on the gate of required deliverables, okay? And that's when people begin to lose trust in the process, they detach, and they produce documents to, to, to ensure compliance as opposed to create clarity.

And, and on top of that, if you just think about opportunity framing, this is still one of the [01:39:00] best-kept secret in the oil and gas industry. Okay? Opportunity framing workshop are usually only known by, by the top companies on the... in the oil and gas. Chevron- Mm-hmm ... Shell, Woodside, those companies that they've been around for decades, they have been able to mature their Stage-Gate process, their management system for three, four decades or more.

They have that expertise, and they have already, uh, used framing for decades, not just as a best practice, but as mandatory approach to start the initiatives. But outside of those big organization, this is not very well known at all, and that's why you see where, you know, m- smaller organizations c- teams rely on individual experiences.

You know, they assume alignment. They don't- Yeah ... test the [01:40:00] alignment. They call assumptions givens. They don't challenge them. And,

and, and that's why I say there's a real capability gap today when it comes to, uh, Stage-Gate as a governance tool, uh, decision quality during the phase and then at the gate level, capabilities inside organization around facilitation, system thinking, okay, stakeholders alignment, and also, like understanding the role and the intent of those upstream decisions

Orion Matthews

You know what's interesting about that, too, kind of talking about the smaller orgs and how this is an opportunity, it's a se- a best-kept secret, but smaller orgs that are, that have ambitions to grow really should target this.

But why? And I think one of [01:41:00] the things that, you know, you see over and over again with organizations is they're like, "Oh, we're gonna do this thing once we get to this size." And it's sort of like when people say, "I need to be a manager," and, "What do I need to do?" And you're like, well, a lot of times you start doing the things before, you know, you- you show the- the behaviors and then your situation manifests into that space.

So a lot of times you see people that are obviously destined to be managers because they're already behaving with those, uh, you know, those things and- and- and other people that are like, "I don't understand why I can't get to this level, 'cause once I'm at this level, then I'm gonna do these things." And so it's always like, no, you do the things and then you achieve that level.

Um, so as a mid-size organization or anybody watching this that's like, "Oh, w- stage gates will be cool once we're, you know, 10,000 employees," it's like, actually, the 10,000 employee [01:42:00] organization probably st- definitely started the stage gating before they reached that size. It's- it's a requirement to get that big, um, and achieve that much value.

But, um, yeah, you start today. Anyway, just kind of like, uh, that was just triggered me as you were saying those, um, that there's this big opportunity for the smaller- smaller orgs to- to level up essentially. Yeah.

Iwona Wilson

Yeah. I think most organizations, like you just said, they really started stage gate process because they started looking at more than one project.

They were looking, and- and when you have more than one project, you really need to be cautious where you're going to invest.

Orion Matthews

Mm-hmm.

Iwona Wilson

Okay? So I think the smaller companies, the new companies in the industry, they can really leverage on what the large organizations learn, and they can already start looking for, well, what are some of those initial basic principles I can apply now to leverage that experience?[01:43:00]

And don't wait until I'm 10,000, uh, people, employees company. I can actually leverage some of those experiences now, which is really, really, uh, readily available, the principles around decision-making, the principles around stage gate process, the principles around framing and- and- and- and move from developing faster to developing smarter.

You know? Like, that's- that's really what I think, that's where the opportunity is.

Orion Matthews

Well, and I, I would actually say even for very small businesses, opportunity framing and the, the kinds of discipline you're talking about here could be really valuable. I know for me, as a business owner, I have looked back over time sometimes and been like, "Okay, I had this business for 10 years.

What's the ... What do I wish I'd done differently?" Or whatever. It always comes down to decisions, right? I shouldn't have made these decisions, or I should have made this other decision. And [01:44:00] so I think, I think there's room up and down the stack of organization size to improve decision-making because it really is the thing that makes the difference between your future state, uh, and what you're trying to achieve.

So, uh, that's, that's a nice aha to sort of bring into the conversation.

Iwona Wilson

Yeah, absolutely. And some people would even say, uh, y- following what you just said, that your success is only one decision away.

Orion Matthews

Yeah. Yeah. Well said.

Iwona Wilson

You know? So what we're trying to teach in our program, it's think about knowing what's the next decision that you need to make.

What's the minimum amount of effort that you need that will take you there? It's not about doing everything that we've always done to satisfy the requirements, but being really very clear that whatever you do, you can break it [01:45:00] down into phases and gates. Know where you're at on that project life cycle.

Are you just starting up, or you before actually making your biggest commitment?

Orion Matthews

Mm-hmm. Okay?

Iwona Wilson

What's the major commitment? What are the options you have? Okay? What are you gonna get your information from? What are some of the trade-offs? Um, who needs to be involved? And, you know, who needs to commit to what and when to actually make that decision live?

Orion Matthews

Awesome. Are there other ones that we should talk about? Anything else? I wish I had found a way to wrap the functional medicine in, 'cause that's- ... super cool and interesting, um, when we talked about that, but-

Iwona Wilson

No, I think that's it. No, I think- Yeah ... I think just wanted that one because this is sort of linked with what we're trying to do as a company.

Yeah.

Orion Matthews

I like it.

Iwona Wilson

Uh- Yeah ... and no one does the training in decision gate process, you know?

Orion Matthews

I, uh, I mean, you sold me. I'm thinking about putting my [01:46:00] team through this process if it's appropriate. I don't know what the-

Iwona Wilson

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, 'cause- Absolutely. Absolutely. I can give you, uh... We are finishing this cohort- In four weeks time, and that's when I will be publishing feedback.

Orion Matthews

Mm-hmm.

Iwona Wilson

And, uh, you know Gillian Smart, who was at the conference?

Orion Matthews

Yeah,

Iwona Wilson

I do know her. She was at AACE Conference. She's, like- Yeah ... quite famous in the- Mm-hmm ... in the con- in the environment. Yeah. So she's now in my cohort.

Orion Matthews

Oh, cool. Yeah.

Iwona Wilson

So, like, there are people, like, super smart. Like, I'm just so- Yeah ... amazed. Like, super smart people, and they just wanna do their own thing, you know?

Like, a lot of them just wanna do their own thing. So yeah, take this opportunity, do your own framing, and I wanna focus on pop- you know, um, popularizing that knowledge, making it available to teams. Yeah. Whatever I can, I will help you. [01:47:00] If you wanna upskill your team, I think this is a smart decision. In fact, we have a consulting team from Netherlands who bu- bosses are from Shell, and they basically know that method, and they want to train their own people.

Orion Matthews

Yeah.

Iwona Wilson

And, and I think this is, this is cheap, and this is smart, you know?

Orion Matthews

Well, it's such a cool space for you to be going into. I think once you... Um, there's an interesting book called The Challenger Sale that talks about how, you know, one of the most powerful sales you can do to someone is to change their mindset, uh, which is what you do when you're talking about this stuff.

You're saying, "Hey, decisions are really important, and there's a whole science that goes into them, and it has a huge impact on your future." So rather than starting a conversation where someone's like, "I need you to run my stage gate meeting," it's like, "No, no, no," like, "We need to back up." Like, "You're thinking [01:48:00] about decision-making wrong probably.

Let's reset you and then talk about how do we actually help you think properly about this." And so you're, you're offering people a change of perspective, which is super valuable. So I'm excited for you 'cause it's... I'm sure it's taking off, and will continue to take off 'cause it's, it's a good mindset shift.

Iwona Wilson

Hmm. Yeah. Yeah. Thank you so much. And I'm excited, uh, 'cause I didn't know that you also interested in, with your team, to join the cohort. That's exciting.

Orion Matthews

Yeah. Well, um, yes, and I think Kristen said she was following up with you too to kind of talk details, 'cause I think we talked about maybe-

Iwona Wilson

Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.

She hasn't yet, but I, I told her just reach out to me, and we can have a chat, um- Okay ... yeah.

Orion Matthews

Yeah. She's, uh... I think- I'm excited about the idea of, like, my team getting better at decision-making, and then also, uh, using it as a tool for clients that are really on the fence about making a big investment m- with us.

Because I don't [01:49:00] want them to make the investment if it's the wrong decision. I think there's an opportunity to work those workshops in in a really cool way, so I hope we get to explore that.

Iwona Wilson

Okay.

Orion Matthews

Thank you for your time. We used the whole two hours. I'm gonna let you go. Really appreciate it. This was a wonderful conversation.

Thank you so much, uh-

Iwona Wilson

Yeah. Well, thank you, Orion. Honestly, I'm so sorry I took so long. Oh my gosh.

Orion Matthews

No, it was great. And like you said, the editing we'll, we'll edit out all the ums, cut back some stuff- Yeah ... if needed. Uh, Amanda's really great. And then we'll give you the pre, um, episode to review. So- Oh,

Iwona Wilson

okay.

Orion Matthews

Okay ... you can download it, save it of course, cut it up yourself if you want, and, uh, any, any changes that you want made, just let us know and we'll, we'll make them too.

Iwona Wilson

Okay. Beautiful. Thank you so much, Orion. You have a wonderful weekend. Thank you. And we'll talk next. Yes, have a great one. Bye.